Independent Caucus

Caucus Night, Part One

It began with caucus day, which began, for me, with a black suit, white shirt, green and blue striped tie, blue links to match the tie, and some black shoes I had resoled and polished before leaving Baltimore.  It's as good as I can look.  So what's the occasion?  Well, it was out of respect.  On my final day in Waterloo, election day, it was for the Senator, for the hundreds of Iowans I had talked to and had been willing to talk to me, most by phone, but some at their front door and in their living rooms.  It was for Josh and Eric, who led us all, and were unbelievably good.  The night before, they too said they were wearing suits, and did.  What I found was Presidents and presidential campaigns create their own reverence, and you just respond to it.  The suit was my response.

I think there were 14 of us as election day neared - Josh, Eric and 12 volunteers.  The day before election day, several of us were told we would be functioning as precinct captains for Joe Biden.  Caucuses have a vote-negotiation component primaries don't have, and precinct captains do the negotiating.  So why would anyone's vote be up for negotiation?  The reason is because the ultimate goal of Caucus Night is to win delegates.  And since there are way more voters than delegates, and since the conversion from votes to delegates is a step function (in other words, you need X votes for 1 delegate, k more for the second, j more for the third, and so on), there is the opportunity to negotiate for votes along the lines of, "Hey, you (Hillary) have two delegates already, but need j more for the third, and you only have j-4.  Give us your j-4 so that our guy Biden can be viable; otherwise, we're going to move as a block over to Obama."  You're thinking, "Math was not my best subject."  It's easy, because at Caucus there's always a Caucus Chairperson who tells you what X is, and k, j and any other number.  They do the math and tell you after each round of "negotiation", that is, voting.

It's why signing-in for your precinct (your precinct is based on your address) is mandatory to participating.  When sign-in is completed, the Caucus Chair takes a head count.  If a precinct's head count doesn't match the sign-in total, then the Chair needs to ask whether everyone signed in or otherwise account for the discrepancy.  The bottom line is the two numbers have to match, and the Chair won't let voting start until they do.  Once the precinct total is determined, the Caucus Chair computes "X".  This is the viability number, that is, the number of votes needed for a given candidate to receive 1 delegate.  This is a rounded number representing typically 15% of the total.  For my precinct, this number was 20.  The preliminary count I took of our Biden group was 10.  So Biden was "not viable."

These caucus locations are just giant rooms - at schools, at community centers, wherever there is a large enough room to accommodate a precinct.  Or two or three.  My caucus was in an elementary school gymnasium (which doubled as lunch room) where initially they (the Iowa Democratic party, I assume) found it suitable to accommodate no less than 4 different precincts.  That wasn't happenin', ultimately.  More on that later.  But the venue, typically, is a big room and lots of Iowans, sitting, many standing for long periods of time, including many elderly people.  It's something to watch.  We eastern primary voters would never stand (quite literally) for it.  There would be tempers.  There would be irritation.  Honestly, there might be fainting, because it got warm as the room filled.  But none of that happened.  None of it.  Iowans seem genetically predisposed to it all.  It's a chaos they deal with - calmly and cooperatively.  The line at the sign-in table was 4 people wide and extending out the exit doors, into the hallway, and out into the parking lot, and yet all seats in the gymnasium were long since taken.  People and still more people coming.  Old people, some on crutches, in wheelchairs, but, mostly, just way, way too many.  Where was everyone going to go?  They would never fit.  But those in line and those already in the gym just continued on.  Many folks waited silently.  Others talked quietly, at least by east coast standards.  It aggregated into a murmur not at all loud for so many.  I took it all in like one of those 360-degree camera angles, my thoughts alternating between being impressed and thinking "Ah, this would never work back home."

I got there early, when the gym was relatively empty.  I got my first hint what I was in for when several folks walked in carrying sandwich trays, and mega-packs of bottled water.  You bring the food stuffs when you know you are in the for the long haul.  I thought the provisions were a bit of overkill.  An hour and a half later and the sign-ins not yet done, I thought otherwise.  By then, it seemed almost obvious.  It was my job to look out for the Biden voters.  "Water, why the hell didn't I bring water?"

As captain of the Biden caucus, I (and other captains) had gotten there early and put signs on the wall so that supporters would know where to generally congregate.  There was more to do, though.  The local newspaper indicated that 4 different precincts would be caucusing in that same elementary school gym.  The gym was full of cafeteria tables (on wheels, fortunately).  One local guy (Biden guy for a different precinct) who got there about when I did started moving the tables in a configuration which basically turned the gymnasium into a quad.  He looked like he knew what he was doing, and, after all, with 4 precincts using the same room, we needed some way to segregate everyone.  So I helped him.  And when we were finished, we took wide black tape and taped the precinct number each quad represented on the wall by that quad.  I taped up my Biden signs after that, and then there was nothing to do but wait.  Like I mentioned, and hour and a half later, we were all still waiting.

I fairly stood out in that gym.  One reason was the early arrivers watched me along with that other guy reconfigure the whole gym.  More voters arrived as we taped up the precinct numbers in black tape, more still as I sought a good high place to tape up my Biden signs.  But more than that, much more than that, I was the only guy wearing a suit.  As numbers in the gym continued to swell, and seating continued to diminish (I started with the assumption that caucus locations provide ample seating for voters; the turnout this year was up over 100%, but still, I didn't understand till later how accustomed Iowans are to standing on Caucus Night), I got more concerned.  I asked several people, "Is this normal?..this many people in this gym?"  And the reaction was pretty much the same, a shrug and a statement like, "No, I don't recall there being this many people" but where the statement conveyed no real worry or concern.

But standing the whole time, having organized the room, pacing around, talking to various different Iowans in attendance, plus the suit, gave me the unintended look of someone in charge, and soon multiple people had asked me that very question.  One wanted to point out that 7pm was nearing (when sign-ins are supposed to be completed and caucusing is supposed to begin).  Multiple people asked me if I could tell them their precinct.  I said, "It's based on your address."  The guy said, "541 3rd Street SE".  Walked right into that.  I told them they needed to look it up in one of the blue books, and then walked them over to where they were.  One guy said, "Son" and motioned me over to his table just to say, "Now you're dressed far too nicely for this occasion.  Who are you with?  Biden, huh?" noticing the lapel sticker.  "Well, I like Joe.  I like him a lot.  But he obviously attracts a much dressier crowd."  He had his table laughing and they were having a good time.  Frankly, I was happy the suit was providing some entertainment amid all the waiting.

The room was filling up more and more, like that movie "Drowning Pool" but with bodies, and I seemingly the only one actually afraid of drowning.  I sensed surprise, but not concern, and couldn't reconcile the two things.  I was also getting thirsty.  I knew if I was, several of the older members in our little Biden corner were likely also.  I went several tables over to the Obama section, where all the water and sandwich trays were.  It looked like those who had brought them had already well delved into them, and there was still plenty of water.  Someone walked in front of me, grabbed a couple bottles from the pack, and turned to walk back.  I asked him "Do you suppose that water is for general consumption at this point?  I'm with Biden."  "I don't know, I'm with Hillary," he said with a grin.  Question answered. I grabbed four bottles and took them over to my Biden folks.  There were only three takers, leaving one bottle.  A non-Biden guy sitting across and further down the table made eye contact with me.  I pointed to the bottle, and he nodded.  I asked one of the Biden folks, "Pass this down to the gentlemen over there in the green jacket."  I was beginning to see how the whole caucus thing works, why it works at all, because everyone, within precincts, across precincts, for Biden, for Hillary, for whomever, shares, cooperates and makes it happen.  It's the coolest damn thing.

It's the ?, Stupid

I had an initial desire if not a need to write a post that attempted to give my impression from the campaign, what it was (the issue to substitute for "?" in the title) that brought about and explains the election results from the Iowa Caucuses.  For anyone who got onto this blog before I pulled it, I had a post that suggested, as James Carville of the '92 Clinton campaign had in the race against George Bush senior, that "it's the economy, stupid," that those who finished one and two, namely, Obama and Edwards, had had more of a domestic focus to their campaign message than Senator Biden, whose message focused more often on foreign policy.  The initial and concluding hypothesis was that Afghanistan is off of page 1, that Iraq has now gone on longer than World War II, and that quietly but in large numbers the American people have returned their focus from matters overseas to matters here at home.

Now, Senator Biden has a great domestic agenda and set of proposals.  He can go toe to toe on domestic policy with the other candidates and win.  So if the vote was what it was because Iowa voters presumed that Obama and Edwards were more focused than Joe Biden on matters here at home, then I suppose I'm even more disappointed than before.

The frustrating thing was that we could not even get Iowa voters to tell us why they preferred some of the other candidates.  They'd say, "I'm supporting Hillary, but I like Joe" or "I'm supporting Obama, but Joe is my #2" or "I'm supporting Richardson, and Hillary is second, but I really like Joe".  It was remarkable.  And they meant it.  You could tell.  Iowans are very straightforward.  They liked Joe, sometimes, I got the sense, as much as I did.  And I think the reason they did not support him is because they felt he could not finish first in Iowa.  In Iowa.  I'd ask, "Do you mean you don't think he can finish first in Iowa, or in November against the Republican nominee?" and they would say, "in Iowa."  And that astounded me, really.  Because Iowa does not choose the nominee.  Iowa simply narrows the field.  If they believed, as they clearly did, that Joe deserved to be in that narrowed field, then why wouldn't they go and vote for him in the Caucus, and, oh, by the way, be true to themselves in the process?

I never figured this out.  I did change the minds of a few Iowans by simply pointing out that Iowa does not choose the nominee; it narrows the field.  I said, "If you think Joe should be in that narrowed field, then caucus for him, and he will be."  Several people said, "Well, you have a point there.  I hadn't really thought about it like that.  I do like Joe.  And you've given me something to think about there.  I may just caucus for him."  They will say "may" because Iowans always reserve the right to change their minds at the last minute, which is partly why Iowa polls can be so unreliable, though were pretty accurate this time.

There is a chicken and egg thing here that gnaws at me.  The network and cable news channels started running Iowa presidential polls incredibly early, even before anyone had announced.  Those early results, not surprisingly, were large numbers for those candidates with the greatest name recognition.  No real surprise, there.  One would have needed to be somewhat of a news junkie to know much of Senator Biden prior to the start of the caucus campaign.  So did a deluge of polls very early showing Joe Biden in low, low numbers bias Iowa voters from the start against him, and in favor of those who looked like "winners" when in fact no contest had even begun?

The percentages never really moved that much.  And that's the shocking part, especially if you were in Iowa, and at his events.  I mean, Senator Biden early on was at 1%; polls closer to election day had him closer to 8%.  Had Iowa been a primary and not a caucus (with its 15% minimum precinct support figure for being "viable"), Biden would have gotten about 8% of the vote, because nearly all precinct captains I talked to after the vote said Biden was at about 1/2 what he needed to be viable (1/2 of 15% being close to 8%).  So the polling proved pretty good close to election day.  But the lack of a rise in the polls to some point where Biden's viability would have been assured on the first ballot in most precincts in a state like Iowa which prides itself in doing its homework and taking the measure of each candidate leaves me confused given how good a candidate he is and how well he campaigned and others campaigned on his behalf.

The only thing I can think of is that perhaps America has truly moved on, in big numbers, from concerns abroad to concerns at home - affording health care and education, immigration, the security of pensions - and that in taking their measure of the candidates, Iowans concluded that Barack, Edwards and Hillary emphasized those domestic things in their talks more than Joe Biden did.  And I think that's true, meaning that perhaps once again James Carville gets to be right - it was the economy, stupid.

But we lost this one.  Everyone liked Joe.  His crowds were great.  "I like Joe, I really do.  All the candidates are so good this time."  That was the refrain.  But Joe Biden is pleased with the campaign he ran.  So I can be.  I'm pleased with the effort we all made.  It was incredible, and so were all the people I worked with at the Biden campaign office in Waterloo, and so was the Senator, and his entire family, out in force on the campaign trail.  The experience was far more exhilarating than tiring.  All I know is, I'd do it again, in an instant, and would do it again for Joe Biden in a fraction of that.

A Quick Thanks

Though, as you all know, writing something brief is not my strength.  :)

But, really, a quick thanks.

The Iowa thing was 7 days of nonstop work to create as much support and find as many votes as possible for Senator Biden.  Each day started about 9am (one, the last, at 7am) and ended around 9-10pm.  Throw in some time to decompress, usually, at a great Irish pub named "Jameson's", and I was returning to my hotel around midnight each night.  On only one occasion in 8 nights did the TV ever go on.  I turned it on one of those nights to hopefully see some coverage of the big crowds we were getting in places like Des Moines, Indianola, Waterloo, and other places.  The couple of nights I took time to update this blog, I didn't get to bed until probably 2am.  Mornings came early, needless to say.

And so I want to thank those who sent text messages, left phone messages, and sent emails of encouragement.  They were much appreciated, and, in the midst of everything, rarely returned.  But each gave me a palpable boost of energy and humility at having such good friends.  Thank you.

-Joe

Lots of Day Twos

Recall Day One?  That was the glamour day.  Four events with the Senator, his one son Hunter, his brother Jimmy, his press secretary Annie, and the rest of the traveling squad going wherever the Senator goes; but truly the named members appeared the vast majority of it, the Senator able to travel much lighter than, say, Senators Clinton and Obama, what with their attendant Secret Service protection (Senator Clinton gets hers by being a former First Lady; and Obama gets his by some threats made against his person early in the campaign).

Day Two was phones.  Also phones.  We also made some calls.  And later that same day talked to several hundred former Iowa Caucus goers on the phone.  And when that was done, contacted a few folks by phone and asked for their support.

The phone stuff...is hard work.  It's not that you are calling folks out of the blue that is hard.  Oddly, you get used to that rather quickly.  No, the hard part is once they answer, convincing them that our guy is the best, and better than the guy or woman they are considering and possibly favoring at the moment.  That takes skill born of practice.  It also takes knowing the Senator, best one can, and not just his policy positions.  That's where Day One was key.  I heard the Senator speak to crowds all that day - in person - while never standing all that far from him, that is, close enough to see, hear and perceive things about the man making the speech.  That's where, if you have the privilege to see a candidate for office up close, one you think you might want to support, there is an extra dimension of information which accrues to you in the process which can only be gotten in person.  And it armed me with a much needed insight into the Senator once all the phone calls started.

But try convincing someone gung-ho about Obama that he or she should consider Biden.  "Who do you say?"  "Biden, Senator Biden." "Oh, yes, well I've heard and read some things about Biden."  "Have you seen him yet?" "Oh, well, no, actually.  I was supposed to see him last week, then something came up and I didn't get there." "Well here's what I heard Senator Biden say about that issue several times just yesterday.  The Senator feels strongly that...."

And so it goes.  Helping further were summaries of the Senator's positions on just about every major issue.  The campaign had these printed and ready the day I arrived.  Those summaries have been my bible from that day on.  But it's processing those summaries in conjunction with having seen the Senator live which truly equips one to argue for Senator Biden over one of the other candidates.

Obviously, the calls to people who already like Biden are easy and fast, but even then, you have to remember to ask something of them:  "I'm voting for Joe Biden." "Yes, he's good isn't he." "Oh, yes, I just love Joe." "Well, Mrs. Taylor, we could use someone in your precinct to head up the Biden corner at the Caucus.  What do you say, can we count on you?" "Well, yes you sure can.  I'll need some posters and things, I guess." "Yes, ma'am.  We'll get all that out to you prior to Caucus day."  This, I came to learn, is a key thing - to have a precinct captain, someone to organize, run and hold a caucus together for a given candidate.  It's a bit like herding - the Biden herd needs to be kept together so not cherry-picked by some other candidate.

But the time and difficulty factor go up considerably if the person says, "Well, I like Joe, but I'm leaning towards Hillary as my first choice," or if the person says, "Well, I like Joe, but I'm just not sure he can win."

Let's take those one at a time. "What is it you like about Joe?" "Well, you know, he's very knowledgeable in foreign affairs, and I know he has a plan for Iraq that has gotten attention."  "What is it you prefer about Hillary."  "What do I like more about Hillary?" "Yes." "Well, you know, she wants to end the war in Iraq, and she is for universal health care."  "Well, you should probably know on Iraq that Senator Biden's plan - the one you eluded to - won 75 votes in the Senate and over 300 votes in the House, and that it differs from Hillary in that Senator Biden supports fully funding the troops while on the ground, including extra money for the construction of mine-resistant vehicles known as MRAPs and for our returning veterans, whereas Senator Clinton has voted to cut off funding.  Also, Senator Biden doesn't want to just pull out our troops in the manner Senator Clinton has expressed, that is, without having first worked out an agreement with the sectarian groups in Iraq to allow them some limited autonomy well shy of partition.  That approach risks a return to sectarian cycles of violence, and the likelihood American troops will have to go back once removed.  Oh, and, by the way, the Senator is also for universal health care, but in pragmatic steps:  first all kids should be covered, then catastrophic care beyond some threshold of expense should be put in place to bring greater predictability to insured losses, making for greater, more commoditized pricing, that is, a lower price for private health insurance.  How do those positions stack up against Senator Clinton's?" "Oh, well, those are pretty good.  Yeah, I like those.  But I'm just not sure Senator Biden can win."

Which brings us to that second refrain, heard often enough, surprisingly, from Iowans who have been doing this now long enough.  "Well, do you mean win against the Republicans in November, or come in first in Iowa?" "Come in first in Iowa."   And here I have to be careful, because, of course, it is key not to offend, but my response to that, honed over the course of several calls, is this:  "Well, sir, Iowa doesn't do that.  Iowa doesn't pick the nominee.  But it does narrow the field; in fact, it cuts it about in half.  Basically, Iowa will choose 4 names to pass along to the rest of the states for their consideration, and the whittling of that number down to 3, 2 and eventually one will be done by the states after Iowa.  For the Iowa Caucuses, there's no prize for first (no statutory prize, anyway) nor penalty for 4th.  Rather, if you feel Senator Biden rightly belongs among the 4 names passed out of Iowa to the rest of the nation, and in addition believe him the best of the four, then caucus for him.   The nation is counting on Iowans doing just that."

Now, a lot of Iowans know that.  But I've been surprised how many think, "Well, hmm, given the polls, I don't see how Joe can finish first in Iowa, so I better go with Obama, since he is my second choice."  And yet they are almost willingly disabused of that way of thinking once pressed on it, the usual reaction something like, "Yeah, well, that makes sense.  No, I don't suppose Iowa does pick the nominee, but, like you said, narrows the field to a smaller group of candidates.  Well, yeah, now that you mention it, I'm going to support Joe, because I do think he is the best candidate."  That, my friends, when that happens, is a wonderful feeling.  The voter is happy because he or she sees in a clearer way exactly what Iowa's role is in the presidential nominating process, and I'm happy because I just got another vote for my guy.

And then the other part of the day is forgetting to eat and leaving at 11pm.

It's a treat for us, while phone-banking all day, to get word from the Biden troop on some successful campaign stop where the crowd exceeded available seating and was standing-room only, or to see evidence of same on CSPAN, CNN, etc.  There is a TV in one of the offices at the campaign headquarters, and when our guy or those (like his wife and son, Beau) representing him across the state are on TV, we all tend to crowd into that room unless and until our respective call-sheets start calling to us, quietly, with, "Psst.  Duuude.  85 calls left.  You might want to stop watching CSPAN..."  We watch in dread for the first staffer to peel off out of the room and back to the phones, then the next, the next, two more, and finally, you.  But I will tell you, there is no substitute for it.  If Iowans don't know you are competing hard for their vote, I truly believe they feel reluctant to give it to you.  And it's why Fred Thompson nor Giuliani on the Republican side will do very well tomorrow.

Oh, by the way, tomorrow (actually, later today) is caucus day.  I missed several days on the ol' blog, and then all of the sudden it's caucus day.  I noticed when I walked into the hotel lobby after 11pm, tonight, that the only other people walking into the lobby (from the entrance on the opposite side) at that hour were Hunter Biden and Annie, meaning the Senator himself was not far behind.  So they are all staying at my hotel tonight.  We all need to be at Jameson's Irish Pub at 8am for the final, rockin' (because it will be, even for 8am) Biden campaign stop before the caucuses begin.  Hunter walked straight for me - having seen me all day long on the day with those 4 campaign stops - and shook my hand, with Annie following right behind.  I said, "Hunter!" and fear it came out louder than I intended and is allowed at that hour in a deserted hotel lobby.  But after all this hard work of 8 days, I was truly thrilled to see him, as I would have been any fraction of the Biden contingent.  I said, like a rookie, to the only hotel staff person at the registration desk, "That's Hunter Biden, son of the next President of the United States.  Right there."