The Israeli and U.S. response to Hezbollah's recent attack across the Blue Line, in my view, was shortsighted and rash. The shortsightedness in this case for the Israeli leaders, government and people (since the war was hugely popular when it broke out) can be related to a game of chess. Hezbollah seemed to expose its queen for almost no reason. They seemed to do so recklessly, even pathetically, because the queen could now be easily taken by Israel's military, Hezbollah's move having provoked such a response. However the Bush administration is correct when it says that authoritarianism hates democracy; ergo, Hezbollah hated the establishment of a democratic government, be it a young one, in Lebanon, and wished to weaken it. Well, Israel's response did just that. I wonder if Hezbollah leaders, before running for bunkers at the start of the bombing campaign, first toasted the moment with some alcohol-free beverage. Israel underestimated her opponent, and her opponent's motives, and let Hezbollah play her side of the chess board.
There are some truisms in the Arab world, one of those being that as tribally as the Arab world can behave, when some member of it is in a military fight with Israel, they all close ranks. Arguably, the West is safer when the various disparate Arab political and guerrilla groups are not working together, but competing with one another.
Another truism is that the Arab world, even the more moderate Arab world, would just as soon Israel go away entirely. There is a common feeling that Europe and America fought a big war and designated a piece of Arab land to solve the problem of Jewish nationalism instead of some piece of Europe or America. That view is mistaken from everything I've read - as it was the Jews themselves who began to emigrate to the present state of Israel both before and after the war. And further, everything I've read indicates emigrating Jews didn't find much when they got there, but a lot of vast, arid, undeveloped or underdeveloped space. And, with some industriousness they are to be given credit for, I should think, even or especially by Arabs from that part of the world, they solved some of the problems of living in that region and began to build enough new villages and towns to make people take notice. So, Balfour notwithstanding, the West did not choose Palestine for the Jews. They chose it themselves, which doesn't alter the first sentence of this paragraph - that the Arabs have never really wanted them there - either now, then or back to biblical times.
Still, there are such things as "moderate" Arab states and peoples, and so I would argue that while all Arab states probably don't want Israel there, only a few would commit the mass murder necessary to eradicate them. Therefore - and this is the shortsighted part - Israel must understand that her long-term security interests are enhanced by growing the "moderate" view and isolating the radical view. You don't do that by bombing the only Arab democracy and a neighbor back to her civil war days simply because the central government and army are not yet strong enough to confront and deal with a well-armed Iranian/Syrian-backed, -funded and -supplied militia in its southern end. All you do is all they did - make the democratic government of Lebanon look impotent in the eyes of the Lebanese, as well as throughout the Arab world, and make Hezbollah, Iran and Syria look stronger. In the process, Israel turned even moderate Arab states against her, and also, against the U.S.. All America accomplished by going along was to weaken her position as an honest broker in the Middle East and to increase hatred for America on the Arab street.
The shortsightedness is further amplified when one considers that a Security Council resolution - 1559 - already existed for addressing the Hezbollah problem. It had only been partly implemented, to be sure, most notably, the part dealing with Syria's pullout from Lebanon. But it existed! There wasn't a need to call for a meeting of said Council to get said resolution. No need for the international community to come together to draft language. Language had already been drafted, voted upon and passed! And now, Israel - after a clear aggression against her by Hezbollah across the blue line where multiple soldiers were killed and two kidnapped, with a subsequent raining down of Katusha rockets on northern Israeli towns - was in the perfect position to be the undisputedly aggrieved one and to implore the international community to do exactly what it ultimately did do - implement a plan for enforcing the remainder of 1559, except that Israel chose to gain that outcome along with the derision of the entire Arab world for what was deemed by all Security Council representatives except the United States (I listened to it on C-SPAN radio) as a "disproportionate response."
Sometimes a good caddy, like Steve Williams, will reach for the 2-iron before Tiger reaches for his driver.
Well, the U.S. stayed silent and let Israel swing away. We don't have biblical animosities with the Arab world. Cooler heads should have existed and prevailed within the U.S. government and State Department once those soldiers were taken and the Katusha's began to fall. But we just let them swing away. Israel reacted angrily and allowed anger to forge policy. The U.S. should have offered Israel her 2-iron, but instead just went along. It's a shame, really. My sentiments are with my own country, and I regret our diminished stature in the Middle East as a true force for effective and fair diplomacy. We will be paying for this error for a while. Israel had to know she would not, could not dislodge, disarm, destroy Hezbollah with a few strategic air strikes and U.S.-made smart bombs. She also had to know, nasty as they are, that Hezbollah's Katusha's would not, could not fundamentally threaten Israel. Israel should have instituted temporary evacuations from some of the more vulnerable northern regions, made her facile case (a video of 10 or 20 Katusha explosions should have done it) to the U.N. and given the U.N. Security Council countries and others an opportunity to act on her behalf to enforce 1559. She would have achieved the outcome she ultimately achieved - Hezbollah forced to share space with a large contingent of international troops and the Lebanese army - without having weakened the democratic government of Lebanon, and coalesced Arab hatreds against herself and the U.S. from among even moderate Arabs.
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